October 14, 2025 | Consumer Packaged Goods, Industry Trends, Our Thinking
Uncertain Times Demand Courageous Leaders: The Profile of a CPG Executive in 2025
The consumer packaged goods (CPG) sector has historically operated assuming some measure of stability. But population growth, retailer consolidation, and a volatile market have made clear that uncertainty isn’t a passing storm. It’s the new normal.
Rather than waiting for things to even out so they can dust off old playbooks, the CPG executives I’m talking to are developing bold, adaptive strategies that enable growth—even in uncertain markets. This means that change management, scenario planning, and adaptive leadership are table stakes skills for the modern CPG executive.
Key Takeaways
- Uncertainty is the new normal in CPG. Executives can no longer rely on old playbooks; they must master scenario planning, technology-enabled insights, and customer-centric strategies to stay competitive.
- Leadership profiles are shifting. The modern CPG leader needs to balance agility, adaptability, and cross-functionality while making strategic capital allocation decisions that drive long-term value.
- Growth depends on resilience and foresight. By building cultures of experimentation, leveraging data, and prioritizing customer engagement, CPG executives can turn volatility into opportunity.
The Current CPG Environment: What’s Changed in Recent Years?
It’s impossible to pinpoint a single event or trend that has caused the transformation in the CPG market. Rather, several major shifts have come together to create this perfect storm.
| Shifting consumer behaviors | There’s an interesting bifurcation as it pertains to consumer behavior. On the one hand, price sensitivity is a top concern. On the other hand, many consumers will pay a premium for particular brands, or for eco-friendly or health-conscious options. This phenomenon signals the need for complex, nuanced buyer personas. |
| Macroeconomic and inflationary pressures | Ongoing economic and geopolitical factors, such as tariffs, inflation, and supply chain disruptions, are driving CPG companies to embrace resilience and agility. Companies are looking to build “regulation-ready portfolios,” flexible supply networks, and integrate technology-enabled forecasting and scenario planning. |
| New dynamics in CPG-retail relationships | Many CPG companies are pivoting from traditional wholesale and adopting direct-to-consumer (DTC) or hybrid strategies. This involves using digital innovation to build online platforms that control pricing, customer data, and brand interactions. Additionally, they’re creating custom solutions built to develop direct consumer relationships, in some cases delivering products directly to their door. |
| Cautious volume recovery | Most CPG growth in recent years has come from price increases, not volume gains. However, trends seem to be shifting more volume-friendly, leading to cautious optimism around future consumer affordability. This has a direct impact on company margins with consumers being more discerning. |
| Rise of private label | Private label now accounts for 20% of global FMCG sales. No longer just a low-cost alternative, this segment is being recognized as a high-value, quality contender. |
1. Scenario Planning
Fast evolving market dynamics require leaders with exceptional scenario planning expertise. I’m seeing companies looking for leaders who can prepare plausible best-case, worst-case, and likely-outcome scenarios based on projected:
- Supply chain disruptions
- Changes in consumer behavior
- Competitor moves
- Pricing wars
- Geopolitical developments
Scenario planning enables these leaders to have multiple plans in place so they can navigate uncertainty and volatility effectively. However, planning alone isn’t enough. It also requires strong teams who can execute flawlessly and with minimal lead time.
2. Technology-Enabled Decision-Making
The amount of information needed to make effective decisions is increasing rapidly, a situation exacerbated by the various scenarios that CPG executives must account for in their strategies (see the previous section). This is too much for human cerebral processing, necessitating the use of technology and new tools. It requires combining common sense, real hands-on experience, and the effective use of the right tools in the right measure.
Using both conventional and AI-powered platforms can give leaders deep visibility into demand, inventory, shipments, and supplier performance throughout the supply chain. Leaders need to balance gut decisions with effective use of tools that help predict trends and understand potential disruptions that no person could foresee. This combined approach ensures CPG leaders can make timely, precise decisions that optimize supply chain efficiency and enhance overall business agility.
3. Customer-Centricity
Everyone has been talking about the need for customer-centric strategies and practices for a while now. However, the fact that buyer behaviors are changing so rapidly, not to mention the adoption of DTC models, makes the need for customer-centricity even stronger. Industry disruptors have taken note by connecting with new generations of consumers in ways that are not traditional (social media, pop-ups, etc). As a result, billion-dollar brands are being created faster than ever.
Again, this is an area where technology and data analysis can help; it can offer a wealth of information to inform and guide highly personalized engagements with these audiences. At the same time, however, leaders must recognize that relevance and buyer loyalty are hard-fought, and there needs to be deep human engagement in crafting the messaging and strategies used to go after key customer bases.
4. Adaptive & Agile Leadership
Leadership in the modern era isn’t just about building a five-year playbook and guiding its execution. It requires leaders to guide organizations through a rapidly changing environment, adapting, pivoting, and evolving continuously to meet shifting demands.
In particular, I’m seeing a demand for leaders who build cultures of experimentation (and support their teams by encouraging bold ideas and approaches), learning, and open and transparent communication. This requires a blend of traits: vulnerability, decisiveness, connection, and a growth mindset (plus, the ability to encourage these traits in others). Not surprisingly, a key trait that continues to be needed is the willingness to take smart risks and to be an advocate for creating new ways of working fostering a fresh approach.
5. Capital Allocation & Value Creation
Consolidation among CPG has been a defining trait of the past decade; this is no secret. Where CPG leaders can shine today is in figuring out how to allocate capital toward high-quality assets that have leading market shares, sales earnings, and dividend growth.
Companies are prioritizing investments in core, high-conviction brands while rationalizing or even divesting underperforming, non-core assets. However, moving capital away from assets that are currently underperforming because of external factors may run the risk of losing future opportunities when more favorable conditions emerge. CPG executives must be able to weigh various options and make these strategic decisions.
6. Cross-Functionality
Recently, my colleague Molly Hull wrote an article about the rise of the Chief AI Officer (CAIO), specifically commenting on the fact that a defining feature of this role is its cross-functionality.
She’s spot on; I’d even go a step further to say that cross-functionality is beginning to define the entire C-suite. As these executives are charged with managing global supply chains, omnichannel distribution, and driving growth at scale across diverse markets, they require broad expertise across marketing, operations, finance, sales, and supply chains to be successful. Cross-functionality enables executives to balance commercial objectives with operational realities, financial constraints, and logistical capabilities.
Final Thoughts
Whether supply chain disruptions, geopolitical events, or changes in buyer behavior, the modern CPG executive must navigate a volatile market. Since these changes don’t seem to be going anywhere anytime soon, growth amidst uncertainty is the mandate of the future.
How are you approaching what seems to be lasting uncertainty in the CPG market? How are you adjusting your approaches away from outdated expectations?
